Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the political, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in academia but very few politicians or advocates are willing to participate with the basics. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. They authors two pieces that aim for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates range over flags and symbols, levies, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless official who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but each side has got something to gain from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster should engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
